February 26, 2024
As illustrated in the “Magnificent Seven Buyback” chart, total buybacks for the group in 2023 totaled just over $195 billion, with AAPL and GOOG/L representing the lion’s share. Looking ahead to 2024, it could be another sizable year of share repurchases as the group still has $149 billion penciled in for buybacks.
February 20, 2024
With the national debt standing at $34.23 trillion and expected to grow, U.S. Treasury sales are the key to paying the carrying costs. Each auction is heavily monitored by fixed income and equity markets alike to see where the yield settles, as higher yields have a more negative effect on the overall economy.
February 12, 2024
Financial conditions improved in recent months as fewer banks tightened credit conditions in Q4 because fewer firms were pessimistic about demand. As investors digest the experience of loan officers, historically we experienced recessions when credit was this restricted. Improving credit conditions suggest the economy had good momentum as the New Year got underway and markets are responding accordingly.
February 5, 2024
Market breadth has also not kept up with the pace of the rally. For example, declining shares modestly outpaced advancers last month and there were fewer S&P 500 stocks making new 52-week highs in January than in December. This negative divergence, defined by the S&P 500 moving higher as breadth metrics move lower, further raises the odds of a potential pullback or consolidation phase for stocks.
January 29, 2024
History shows higher interest rates have translated into lower stock valuations and vice versa. Consider the fundamental value of a stock is the present value of the company’s future cash flows.
January 22, 2024
The global economy experienced multiple shocks in recent times from the Russian attacks on Ukraine, atrocities in the Middle East, the seating of an unconventional president in Argentina, and most recently, a crisis in the Red Sea. Yet, markets and the economy remain surprisingly resilient. Could the recent challenges in inter-continental shipping contribute to a resurgence of inflation and hamper the Fed’s plans this year?
January 16, 2024
This reporting period may lack the splashy “earnings recession over” headlines we got last quarter, but it takes on added importance because it sets the tone for 2024. After 2023 was a year in which improving valuations delivered strong gains, this year, earnings will likely have to do the heavy lifting.
January 8, 2024
Still, as 2024 began, endemic problems remained with the property sector mired in debt, the shadow banking system (non-bank lending) showing signs of financial strain, and unemployment among the country’s youth hovering over 20%.
Moreover, a raft of economic and political/military issues are cause for concern as global investors have looked elsewhere for direct investment opportunities. Flows into China’s public companies have been hampered by questions regarding regulations that seem to fluctuate on political whims.
January 2, 2024
What was surprising at the last Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, and a key catalyst for the drop in rates and subsequent equity market rally, was that the Fed finally came down closer to market expectations for interest rate cuts versus the market being forced to recalibrate expectations higher. However, the gap between Fed projections and market expectations for monetary policy still remains high.
December 18, 2023
The technical backdrop for U.S. equity markets continues to improve. The S&P 500 has staged an impressive comeback after briefly entering a correction period this fall. Broad-based buying pressure outside of just the mega-cap space likely has underpinned the recovery.
December 11, 2023
Despite a heavy lobbying effort to cajole OPEC+ members to agree to a unified cut in oil production, Saudi Arabia, the de facto leader of the energy cartel, was unable to orchestrate anything more than pledges on a “voluntary” basis. Accordingly, benchmark oil prices continued to slide lower following the announcement, and without a catalyst to propel prices higher, oversupply in the market coupled with concerns over the global economic landscape, have steadfastly kept prices lower.
December 04, 2023
Opportunities abound in the markets, even during periods when the economy appears ripe for a regime shift. Recent growth metrics surprised to the upside, but leading indicators point toward some downside risk. In this edition of the Weekly Market Commentary, we examine potential opportunities amid a rotation in housing, buying patterns, and inflation.
November 20, 2023
As the market appears to be taking a rest and consolidating its $2.7 trillion rally leading up to the Thanksgiving holiday, the historical pattern over the last five years suggests the shortened holiday week typically enjoys modest gains. With concerns over the resiliency of consumer spending, however, the market can be affected by any indication that Black Friday doesn’t witness the throngs of consumers out hunting for bargains, or indications that the start to Cyber Monday won’t result in the billions of dollars that are spent online.
November 13, 2023
While a confirmed breakout above this level raises the odds of the correction being over, there are still a few boxes left to check on our technical list before making that call.
November 6, 2023
The muni market has had to deal with numerous external factors— aftershocks of the regional banking crisis, tax season, elevated levels of selling by banks, unexpectedly large federal budget deficits, and a hawkish Fed. So, with the last two potentially out of the picture, we think the set-up for muni investors could be a positive one.
October 30, 2023
We expect the strong job market, cooling inflation, the end of Fed rate hikes, stable interest rates, and growing corporate profits to help stocks overcome these worries and keep this young bull market going. And we believe the macroeconomic environment and seasonal tailwinds will provide enough support for stocks to move modestly higher over the balance of the year, though the path may be bumpy.
October 23, 2023
Despite headwinds, the U.S. could experience structural changes in the labor market, residential real estate, and inflation as the post-pandemic economy progresses into the New Year. As markets adjust to a new regime, investors should recognize the economy is becoming less interest rate sensitive and they should focus on leading indicators such as the ratio of part-time workers and not on lagging metrics such as the headline growth stats mostly cited in the media.
October 16, 2023
Earnings season has kicked off with several of the big banks and a handful of other blue-chip companies having already reported results for their calendar third quarters. The key headline this reporting season will be the (likely) end of the earnings recession. The October-November reporting season can be particularly interesting because full-year numbers are nearly locked in while more companies share thoughts on the year ahead. Here are several things we will be watching as reports stream in.
October 09, 2023
U.S. Treasury yields have seemingly been moving in one direction lately (higher), with the 30-year Treasury yield temporarily breaching 5% for the first time since 2007. The move higher in yields (lower in price) has been unrelenting, with intermediate and longer-term Treasury yields bearing the brunt of the move. There are several reasons we’re seeing higher yields, but rates are moving higher alongside a U.S. economy that has continued to outperform expectations, pushing recession expectations out further, and by the unwinding of rate cut expectations to be more in line with the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) “higher for longer” regime. And with the economic data continuing to show a more resilient economy than originally expected, we think Treasury yields are likely going to stay higher for longer as well. As such, we now project the 10-year Treasury yield will end the year between 4.25% and 4.75% (previously 3.25% and 3.75%).
October 02, 2023
After a difficult September for stocks, investors are surely ready to flip the calendar to October. That’s the month that kicks off the historically strong fourth quarter. Expecting this pattern to repeat this year is tricky given the overhang of a government shutdown, interest rates near 16-year highs, a market still trying to digest the Federal Reserve’s “higher for longer” message, and a consumer who is facing some stiff headwinds as excess savings are drawn down, student loan payments restart, and the effects of higher borrowing costs are increasingly felt. Amid that complicated backdrop, here we assess prospects for a fourth-quarter rally.
September 25, 2023
India has emerged as a compelling economic growth story and an increasingly attractive alternative to China within the emerging markets complex. A growing population with a robust and young workforce, significant infrastructure spending, and an ongoing digital transformation have been key catalysts to India’s outperformance over China. India has also benefited from the de-globalization trend as manufacturers move production away from China. While we may not go as far as officially calling India the new China, the economic and technical trends suggest the country may be set for a prolonged period of outperformance.
September 18, 2023
Recent data suggests economic conditions in Europe are deteriorating, removing a key element of LPL Research’s positive view of the attractively valued developed international equities asset class. Previous U.S. dollar weakness and strong earnings momentum, which were other key reasons why we became more interested in European investing earlier this year, have reversed and suggest looking elsewhere for investment opportunities. Another international market to consider is Japan, which is also attractively valued with better fundamentals than Europe, in our view.
September 11, 2023
The BRIC acronym, without the “S,” was introduced in 2001 by the Goldman Sachs chief economist who highlighted the prodigious growth and investment prospects of Brazil, Russia, India, and China combined. In 2009, Russia advanced the BRIC platform to create an informal bloc that could challenge the dominance of Western nations, particularly the United States. In 2010, South Africa joined and became the “S” in the BRICS lexicon. The original bloc, an informal economic alliance, comprises approximately 45% of the global supply chain for commodities, including industrial, precious, and agricultural products. In terms of contribution to global GDP, the BRICS constitute 31%, with expectations for a more expanded share as the new BRICS+ entrants are installed in 2024. The bloc has been characterized as the “commodity powerhouse of the world,” and that title will only strengthen with additional members.
September 5, 2023
Despite the rapid rise in interest rates (fall in bond prices), there’s no reason to believe that we are in the beginning of a sustained bear market. Just because yields fell for many years doesn’t mean that they have to keep rising. In fact, at current levels, after years of artificially suppressed levels, long-term yields are back within longer-term ranges. And with inflation trending in the right direction and the Federal Reserve (Fed) near (at?) the end of its rate hiking campaign, we think the big move in long-term rates has already happened and interest rates are finally back to normal.
August 28, 2023
Fed Chair Powell warned that persistent above-trend growth and tighter labor conditions could warrant further tightening. But where the economy is today, investors can still expect no change in rates at the September meeting, but the Committee will be highly data-dependent at the November meeting. Investors need to carefully watch increasing delinquencies and shrinking excess savings for leading indicators of the economy.
August 21, 2023
Volatility has returned right on cue as U.S. equity markets continue to pull back from overbought levels. The recent jump in interest rates has proven to be too much too fast for stocks to absorb, especially for the heavyweight and longer-duration technology sector. Deteriorating economic conditions in China and weak seasonal trends have been additional factors behind the selling pressure. However, don’t panic, pullbacks are completely normal within a bull market. With volatility comes opportunity, and as valuations reset, overbought conditions recede, and support is found, we believe a buying opportunity back into this bull market will present itself over the coming months.
August 14, 2023
It’s different this time. The four (or five) most dangerous words in investing. We’ll take the risk and use those words here as we break down the recent decision by credit rating agency Fitch to downgrade U.S. government debt to its second-highest rating, AA+ (note that several countries in Europe, including Denmark, Germany, Netherlands, and Switzerland enjoy AAA ratings, as do Johnson and Johnson (JNJ) and Microsoft (MSFT)). We compare the potential market impact of this decision to what markets experienced in 2011 when S&P issued its U.S. debt downgrade.
August 7, 2023
Earnings season is mostly behind us with about 85% of S&P 500 companies having reported second quarter results. The high level results aren’t particularly impressive, but if we peel back the onion, the numbers are encouraging. Results and guidance probably haven’t been good enough for stocks to add to recent gains, but they have been good enough, in our view, to end the earnings recession and limit the magnitude of any potential pullback. Here we provide some takeaways from this earnings season.
July 31, 2023
The economy is doing better than expected, and the markets are responding accordingly. In this piece, we discuss some of the factors that cause us to think the Federal Reserve (Fed) hiked for the last time in this cycle as inflation is receding and the outlook for the consumer looks cloudy. We close the piece with investment implications.
July 24, 2023
The first half of the year probably didn’t go the way many fixed income investors had hoped, particularly after the historically awful year last year. It wasn’t a horrible start—more in line with recent years—but expectations were high this year, with many calling 2023 the year for fixed income. But the themes that negatively impacted fixed income investors last year have carried over into this year as well—namely inflation and the Federal Reserve (Fed). While many of us thought the Fed would likely be done raising rates at this point, given the still high (but falling) inflation levels, it looks like the Fed isn’t quite done just yet. Our base case is the Fed will raise rates again this week (and possibly one more time this year) but is close to the end of its rate hiking campaign. As we point out in our recent Midyear Outlook 2023: The Path Toward Stability, a Fed pause has been good news for fixed income. And since we know it’s not how you start but how you finish, once the Fed is done, it could mean the year for fixed income is only postponed and not canceled.
July 17, 2023
Earnings season is upon us as some banks and a small handful of other blue chip companies have already reported results for their quarters ending June 30. The results on the surface probably won’t offer much to write home about given consensus estimates imply a 7% year-over-year decline in S&P 500 earnings per share. However, the key question is always what’s priced in, which at least offers an opportunity for markets to react positively, though our best guess is we get the typical upside surprises and guidance reductions, giving this rally a convenient excuse to take a breather.
July 3, 2023
The long dormant capital markets have recently begun showing signs of interest from institutional investors and deal makers anxious to bring companies to market. While activity remains muted at best, expectations are focused on 2024, when there is a prevailing consensus that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will be finished with its rate hike campaign, and that economic conditions will be resilient enough to underpin a strong capital markets environment. Given the country's unique characteristics in nurturing innovation and technological leadership, the role of capital markets is crucial in maintaining hegemony. That Apple's market capitalization at the close of the second quarter crossed over $3 trillion, exemplifies the country's dominance and the role of innovative experimentation.
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